Optimal Thinning of MCMC Output

The use of heuristics to assess the convergence and compress the output of Markov chain Monte Carlo can be sub-optimal in terms of the empirical approximations that are produced. Typically a number of the initial states are attributed to "burn in" and removed, whilst the remainder of the chain is "thinned" if compression is also required. In this paper we consider the problem of retrospectively selecting a subset of states, of fixed cardinality, from the sample path such that the approximation provided by their empirical distribution is close to optimal. A novel method is proposed, based on greedy minimisation of a kernel Stein discrepancy, that is suitable for problems where heavy compression is required. Theoretical results guarantee consistency of the method and its effectiveness is demonstrated in the challenging context of parameter inference for ordinary differential equations. Software is available in the Stein Thinning package in Python, R and MATLAB.Comment: To appear in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 2021

Earnings Momentum Shifts and Stock Price Movements for Flyer Fund Stocks

Earnings momentum is often considered a key factor in stock price movements. In this study we look at changes in the compound quarterly growth rates over periods of four and eight quarters, and relate these to the price movements of 30 stocks from the Flyer Fund Portfolio. The period of an analyses covers two years from 8-31-11 to 8-31-13. Using cross sectional regression analyses, we identified the statistical relationship between sector price movements and variations in the compound manual growth rate in earnings period. We test the hypothesis that the slop coefficient of the univariate regressions are positive (i.e. b\u3e0). The regressions are carried out separately for the eight quarter and four quarter CAGRs on stock price movements. A separate independent variable, the ratio of the four quarter CAGR to the eight quarter CAGR for each stock is also regressed on sector price movements. Meaningful R2s and statistically significant slope coefficients would suggest that CAGRs for short/intermediate time periods can be used as a selection factor in buying or selling stocks for the Flyer Fund Portfolio.https://ecommons.udayton.edu/stander_posters/1432/thumbnail.jp

Fiber Organization has Little Effect on Electrical Activation Patterns during Focal Arrhythmias in the Left Atrium

Over the past two decades there has been a steady trend towards the development of realistic models of cardiac conduction with increasing levels of detail. However, making models more realistic complicates their personalization and use in clinical practice due to limited availability of tissue and cellular scale data. One such limitation is obtaining information about myocardial fiber organization in the clinical setting. In this study, we investigated a chimeric model of the left atrium utilizing clinically derived patient-specific atrial geometry and a realistic, yet foreign for a given patient fiber organization. We discovered that even significant variability of fiber organization had a relatively small effect on the spatio-temporal activation pattern during regular pacing. For a given pacing site, the activation maps were very similar across all fiber organizations tested

The role of conduction system pacing in patients with atrial fibrillation

Conduction system pacing (CSP) has emerged as a promising novel delivery method for Cardiac Resynchronisation Therapy (CRT), providing an alternative to conventional biventricular epicardial (BiV) pacing in indicated patients. Despite increasing popularity and widespread uptake, CSP has rarely been specifically examined in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), a cohort which forms a significant proportion of the heart failure (HF) population. In this review, we first examine the mechanistic evidence for the importance of sinus rhythm (SR) in CSP by allowing adjustment of atrioventricular delays (AVD) to achieve the optimal electrical response, and thus, whether the efficacy of CSP may be significantly attenuated compared to conventional BiV pacing in the presence of AF. We next evaluate the largest clinical body of evidence in this field, related to patients receiving CSP following atrioventricular nodal ablation (AVNA) for AF. Finally, we discuss how future research may be designed to address the vital question of how effective CSP in AF patients is, and the potential hurdles we may face in delivering such studies